Suzanne Evans Is Posting Propaganda and Spin On Facebook About Brexit And #EuRef #Ukip

AFTER THEIR “MISTAKE” OVER THE PROMISED £350 MILLION A WEEK FOR THE NHS THE LEAVE CAMP CONTINUES TO LIE

Despite Nigel Farage openly admitting that the promised £350 million a week for the NHS was a “mistake”, UKIP and the leave camp continue to believe that the people of Britain are gullible and that they will continue to listen to their lies and propaganda.

We have recently come across a message from Suzanne Evans of UKIP where she describes the UK’s “first day of independence” in terms which can only be described as blatant propaganda and the lowest level of political spin.

Also same post here, not sure who wrote it. Presumably Suzanne.And of course, also printed in the Ukip Express, here.

She starts, “the FTSE 100 lost significant ground” in fact, it hit a seven year low, rallied a little, but still closed with significant losses.  Why does this effect you?  Do you have a pension fund? Well forget retiring. Since the Brexit fiasco the FTSE has lost £120 billion. It also lost £100 billion last Wednesday - to put that into perspective that is nearly 20 years contribution to the EU budget wiped off our economy. 
 
Ms. Evans goes on to say that the pound “rallied”. The pound has lost over 10% of its value in the last week. The exchange rate between the Pound and the Dollar is down to the same levels as 1985, it is now worth nearly the same as the Euro. Why is this bad? As the Leave camp always said, we import more than we export. You do the maths.

Things are only this good because the Bank of England has given some assurances by promising emergency funding of £250 billion. 

Ms. Evans then goes on to say that the our special relationship with the USA will endure. We assume she read this in the Daily Express, owned by a Brexit donor. However, a rather more objective news source, Reuters, makes it very clear that this relationship is under threat:

“The loss of the strongest pro-U.S. voice within the 28-nation bloc, as a result of the “Brexit” referendum, threatens to weaken Washington’s influence in European policymaking and embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin to further challenge the West, analysts and former diplomats say.”

This is very serious. This is more important than a trade deal with the UK and the US and the salvage of the UK’s failing economy, this is threatening the stability of the entire Western world.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-usa-policy-analysis-idUSKCN0ZA351

Ms. Evans then goes on to say the French government has confirmed that the Touquet Agreement will remain in force. This is the bilateral agreement between France and the UK which ensures that the Jungle housing the Syrian refugees remains in Calais and does not end up in Dover. We can find no authority for this in the press anywhere. In fact, Xavier Bertrand, the President of Hauts-de-France region where Calais is located said “The English wanted to take back their freedom: they must take back their border”

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36626553

President Juncker has indeed stated that the negotiations for Brexit will be orderly, however there are no guarantees that we will retain the close connections with our former EU partners that we have now. They are not happy at the referendum result. The European Parliament is demanding that the UK trigger Article 50 TFEU so that this fiasco can continue with some dignity. If you are surprised at this, don’t forget that in his 15 years in the European Parliament, Nigel Farage hardly made friends and influenced people. Many times he has brought our former EU partners to the limits of their patience; openly called them Communists and Nazis. They are hardly likely to have forgotten this when they enter these negotiations. It has also been pointed out that the UK government has only 12 Trade Negotiators, and at least 100 will be needed to pull of this negotiation deal. This is not going to be an easy thing to do in a hurry. However, do not blame our EU partners, these problems are purely the fault of our own Government’s complacency and Nigel Farage’s infantile propensity to insult “foreigners”.

Ms. Evans then goes on to describe how “a big bank” (no mention of which one) has said it will not be transferring jobs over to the EU. This is what we found in the press:

http://news.efinancialcareers.com/be-en/248265/london-banking-redundancies-brexit/

“You’re looking at 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” says one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.”

Ms. Evans now goes on to talk about the CBI - sating that whilst they were previously against Brexit now they were fully on board. That is not how we interpret their statement. This sounded to us more like a word of warning and encouragement toward companies who were about to weather the worst economic storm they had ever had to face. Their statement also stresses the importance of the EU to our economy.

Even once we have left, the EU will continue to be our biggest trading partner, and the first destination for many companies when they start to export.

Finally, she states that several countries are interested in beginning bilateral talks with Britain. The only one we can find is Ghana.

http://pulse.com.gh/business/after-brexit-ghana-britain-trade-talks-begin-immediately-hannah-tetteh-id5188747.html

To be more precise, this is not even a new trading deal. This is a renegotiation of an existing deal which was put in place via the EU. The only reason Ghana wants to talk to the UK bilaterally is that the UK is its largest trading partner within the EU.

Ms. Evans starts her statement with the words “A Prime Minister resigned” - This is the only accurate part of the entire statement.

We are amazed that after all the lies and propaganda spread throughout the referendum campaign, that UKIP would continue to try to dupe the British people. UKIP obviously believe that we are uneducated and gullible. This makes us extremely angry. The vote to leave has already left the UK economy in tatters, we dread to think what will become of it by the time we have negotiated our exit.

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Ukip, Brexit - And The NHS. 200 Leading Medical Experts Speak Out

Ukip recently pushed heavily the anti EU stance of Cancer Specialist Professor Angus Dalgleish, Principal of the Cancer Vaccine Institute. Specialist in cancer immunology and HIV/Aids research.

Dalgleigh - not quite what he seems.

He said:

"The NHS is on its knees and 'could collapse completely' because of immigrants from the EU that we are legally obliged to treat."

Ukip even claimed he was 'speaking for the NHS professionals'.

Sure, we'd listen to him for his views on Cancer. But on the NHS, not so much.

While an estimated 52,000 came here for treatment, about 63,000 Brits went abroad. To say nothing, of course, of the 11% of NHS staff and 26% of doctors who are non-British.

What Ukip didn't tell you: He's a member of Ukip.

What Ukip didn't tell you: He stood as a Candidate for Ukip in the last General Election in the London borough of Sutton and Cheam.

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Statement On Our Brexit Position - Updated

Readers may recall our previous statement on Brexit (in short, we are undecided but will fight Lies and Misinformation). We have also stated on Twitter many times that we, as a group, are split on this matter.

A poll within our group to clarify whether the Brexit support within SLAT has changed at all, has now been completed, and the results are as follows (values rounded):

80%	will Vote To REMAIN
13%	will Vote To LEAVE
7%	are UNDECIDED

Not all SLAT Members voted, but enough to make this a valid result.

Therefore we will continue our current Social Media Policy on the Brexit Matter. To clarify:

1. The EU is a separate issue from our fight against Ukip. We fully acknowledge that Anti UKIP does not automatically mean Pro EU.
    
2. Within SLATUKIP, WDU and various Anti UKIP Groups there are people in both Pro and Anti EU Camps. We acknowledge this and respect it.
    
3. Whether anyone Anti Ukip states any opinions either way on the EU does not detract from their position on Ukip and will not be taken that way.
    
4. We will freely challenge lies and misinformation. People must decide their EU stance - and their vote - on Fact, not Rhetoric.
    
5. We ask that any EU discussion in Anti Ukip Forums/Groups will be polite and fact-based. Aside from our views on the EU, we are all united in our fight against Ukip and we will not allow a separate issue to detract from that.
    
6. The Groups, REMAIN or LEAVE, who are vying for the official Electoral Commission selection as Nominated Group are many and varied. We will refrain from actively promoting or denigrating any particular Group, REMAIN or LEAVE.

We welcome your comments.

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Ukip, The One-Issue Party, is Critically Split On It's One Issue, Brexit.

Farage - no Untiy
in Ukip for Brexit

As we have reported before there are two Brexit groups vying for the nod from the Electoral Commission for Nominated Group: Vote Leave and Grassroots Out; and Ukip still don't know which way to tilt.

Surprising, that after 20 years of planning, Ukip cannot agree let alone on a policy or a plan, but even on a group to support.

Carswell - You rebel, you.

Grassroots Out is the group backed by Leave.EU - which is supported by Nigel Farage and funded by Arron Banks. Nigel Farage claims this is the 'Official' Ukip Group - although no vote was taken and the Ukip NEC was not consulted.

And here's the initial problem: rival group Vote Leave is backed by Ukip's only MP, Douglas Carswell, and Ukip's leading female figure, Suzanne Evans.

Well, Nigel, here's your new problem:

Douglas Carswell claims tonight that the core of Ukip - it's councillors - have turned their backs on Grassroots Out and jumped on the Vote Leave ship.

That's what happens, Nigel, when you unilaterally declare your Party's position behind a group while never actually asking anyone what they think.

Of course, Carswell could be lying. We don't know.

Lying, from a Elected Ukip Official? Shocking.

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EXCLUSIVE: A Eurosceptic View: Is Referendum Defeat UKIP’s Best Case Scenario?

An opinion piece from within UKIP.

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Remaining in the EU seems to be the scenario which a majority of UKIP’s officials and even some MEPs favour; I believe there are elements who envisage a referendum defeat that leaves UKIP as the party best placed to keep the EU under continued scrutiny. Unlike BREXIT, this would not only allow MEPs to finish their terms but also seek re-election in 2019, and it is interesting to note that talk of the “next election” is a conversation that is seemingly given a higher priority than BREXIT strategy.

Many UKIP insiders and staff are already positioning themselves internally in the hope of favourable or higher position on the lists for an election that the party is not supposed to envisage fighting.

Brexit might not be Ukip's best option

It is also worth noting that EU financing of its parliamentary group, The EFDD, and its MEPs is the only steady revenue stream that UKIP can rely on over a period of years, and that BREXIT will leave the party reliant on its dwindling number of donors and members.

It’s only natural that some MEPs, many of whom are in the biggest job of their lives, on the best pay of their careers, fear for their personal future after leaving the EU. Given that UKIP have consistently failed to replicate any of their European political success at home it is probable that most, if not all, of the current UKIP MEPs will never be elected to a position of this level again.

This thought process is not the case for all UKIP MEPs, as I have encountered some that have a genuine desire to “get out and go home”, who aren’t interested in anything other than BREXIT. But those who have side projects, who host delegations and enjoy the lifestyle a little too much, may find leaving the EU a bitter victory to swallow.

I believe that in the wake of a failed referendum a dozen or so UKIP MEPs will be returned to Strasbourg in 2019, although with diminished numbers they will probably be unable to recreate another incarnation of EFDD. Instead, a broader hard-right political group will form, which UKIP will join, but with less influence than they currently hold.

After Brexit, what then for Ukip?

The European operation itself gives one much insight into how the party functions. UKIP has no voting strategy at EU level, doesn’t vote as a bloc because the MEPs aren’t whipped (yet they still strangely have group meetings where a consensus is attempted to be reached but then MEPs vote the way they want anyway).

Most worryingly there is no dedicated policy unit working on Brexit, and as far as I am aware there is also no Brexit plan costed, researched or even written.

After 17 years in the EU parliament at the taxpayer cost, and with a mandate from UKIP voters in four European elections, the fact that the party cannot produce this plan of action is simply unacceptable. Solid research that is presented is routinely ignored by MEPs - for example an excellent report that linked the EU’s African policies to the ebola crisis was wasted.

Understandably, with no proper management structure to speak of, an internal “party only” recruitment strategy, and a “make it up as you go along” political vision, some staff feel unused and unwanted. While the research which could have a serious impact is sidelined, items which secure and maintain the support of ‘kippers’ in the UK is given priority status. As I was told on one occasion “if there aren’t votes in it, don’t bother”.

Perhaps if UKIP had retained the brilliant intellect of Richard North over a decade ago, and built a world class research unit around him, this would not be the case.

UKIP’s only realistic chance of a breakthrough will come in the event of a snap election which could occur if David Cameron’s government sides with the In campaign but Britain votes overwhelmingly to leave. In this highly unlikely scenario, UKIP could pick up a handful of seats in the fallout - assuming the party has the financial means to do so.

However, I feel that if the UK does vote to leave it will be by a razor thin margin, and at that point the British people will want the best placed most professional team to negotiate the divorce from the EU on their behalf. Unfortunately, barring a few of them, UKIP is not the place where these types of people will be located.

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Brexit - And The 'Greenland' Conundrum

We keep seeing in the news references to Greenland being a precedent for our citizens retaining free movement within the EU even following a Brexit.

The situation is very different.

Greenland: Beautiful, just not relevant to the Brexit discussion.

Greenland exited in 1985 and retained OCT status (Overseas Country and Territory) due to its political links with Denmark, therefore the citizens of Greenland actually remained EU citizens.

It was also considered feasible due to the small amount of people living in Greenland. Free movement rights were kept by other EU nationals living in Greenland (obviously not necessary to do it the other way around).

We also see The Telegraph has jumped on the Vienna Convention acquired rights argument, however, the President of the CBI has stated that this still needs to be clarified by the European Parliament. He also states that of course this will not apply to UK citizens who want to move to the EU or to UK citizens who want to move within the EU following a Brexit.

The situation will not be the same following Brexit, and we really wish the Brexiters would stop saying that it is.

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Why Louise Bours Is Wrong When She Writes For The Huffington Post #Ukip

We stumbled across this article from Louise Bours, Ukip MEP, in the Huffington Post where she argues Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron was scaremongering in his claim that the National Health Service would come under increasing pressure if the United Kingdom broke free from the European Union.

Louise Bours, or Van Der Bours as she was known.

But she is wrong, because this is not as simple as she claims and in fact wide open to interpretation. The Vienna Convention applies to agreements between States, not between States and International organisations. Fine if the Treaties are considered agreements between States (individually), not so fine if the EU collectively is considered an international organisation. 

Even if the OAPS are allowed to stay Brexit may still impact on their rights within their country of residence in particular access to healthcare which is currently a reciprocal arrangement between the EU states and ourselves. What if, for example, they need a family member to come and join them to help with their care? Didn't the UK just kick an elderly lady out recently because we said she had no rights of residence to remain with her daughter who was caring for her? In this case the elderly  lady concerned was from South Africa, so she was not an EU citizen.
 
Furthermore workers on fixed term contracts will not have them renewed even if the Vienna Convention is applied. The same with SMEs and their contracts with other EU states. There is no mention of Article 1 of the Vienna Convention in Article 50 of the TFEU which relates to the provisions of an EU member state leaving the EU. In fact we can't find anything that specifically states that Article 1 will definitively apply in case we leave.

Surely someone like Louise Bours, who is not a lawyer, but an actress-turned-politician should not be making our OAPs feel secure when they might not be. Surely it is better for them to be considering their options now rather than later. 

UKIP cannot offer assurances to anyone, and in the case of a Brexit it won't be down to them or our government, it will be down to the remaining 27 Member States. What in fact Louise Bours and UKIP are doing here are offering assurances without having any mandate to do so. The Vienna Convention MAY apply, but this is not as clear as she makes out.

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Opinion: Brexit Questions - We Need Answers

We are - as stated before - as a team, split on Brexit. What we will challenge, though, without fail, is bullshit - from both sides.

The British people have a key decision to make. That decision has to be made on fact, not rhetoric. On cold, hard data, not emotion or principle. And on the real upsides and downsides of both options, not misinformation and fear.

The problem is, there are no facts, as yet. Granted, the Campaign officially hasn't even started yet, but the scrabbling for position has, in earnest.

So here are the key questions that this Slat Team Member wants the answers to.

Where is the Economic Consensus that shows Brexit will be Detrimental / Beneficial to our Economy?

Both sides are happy to very often publicise viewpoints from individual economists, industries and commentators about how Brexit will affect our economy. Neither have provided any expert, independent economic consensus.

Probably there is no consensus either way.

After all, even if you laid every British Economist end to end, they still wouldn't reach a conclusion.

So we'll settle for a majority. We've looked - and there is none. So, to both sides; Don't try to claim your option will be best for our economy unless you can prove it, which you can't.

How Will Brexit Halt or Reduce Immigration, while still Retaining Single Market Access?

The #Ukip war-cry is 'Control Our Borders'. Farage means EU Migrants, of course.

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The Problem With #Brexit Misinformation

True, we see it on both sides. But the main exponents seem to be the various OUT groups.

The campaigns 'for real' haven't even started yet, and we are waiting patiently for actual factual arguments on both sides before we and the British Public make our decision.

Meanwhile, we see outright lies from all sides.

Here's a good example.

This Telegraph Article, "Brexit vote could turn UK into a 'safe haven' triggering EU disintegration, say Barclays" contained such words as:

"could" (5 times), "may" (twice) and "if".

In the tweet by @BeLeaveBritain this suddenly became;

"is" ...

They also claimed that "Barclays are clear" about the matter, when in fact the article was far from it. The article posits a scenario but never at any point claims that this will be the actual outcome.

And Brexit Groups wonder why their lack of integrity and truthfulness is encouraging people firmly to stay IN ?

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Eurosceptics Won't Win The EU Referendum By Punching Themselves In The Face

From the Telegraph:

"The bickering Leave campaigns don't do their cause any good as the case for Brexit gets lost in the battle of egos"

As we've said for .... THE LAST YEAR.

Excellent piece this, going into full detail of just some of the past and current infighting within the Brexit Camps that we've covered in the last year or so. Oh, it's brutal - and getting nastier by the day. Farage v Carswell, Banks v Cummings, Ukip vs ... Everybody Else. It's not pretty, or grown up.

And the ultimate quote from an undecided Tory:

"I'm going to wait until the egos have calmed down."

Who has the key for this lock? Not Nigel.

Reminding you all that we here are undecided on Brexit. But one thing we're clear on: Having Farage and Ukip in the mix is a guarantee losing strategy.

Nigel got the Referendum. But he'll never win it by leading.

More here...

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The Truth Behind The #Ukip Myths Of Roger Helmer

Roger Helmer has decided to attempt to debunk a leaflet circulating in East Midlands and he claims he's exposing the truth behind the leaflet entitled 'Ukip Myths'.

So we took at look at Helmer's claims below and considered them one by one.

"Myth #1: “We pay in money to the EU and get nothing back”. "UKIP says no such thing. But we do say that we get only about half back of what we pay in. They give us back a little of our own money, they tell us what to do with it, and then they expect us to be grateful."

• But we do get all the money back (we are a net contributor) and the money is allocated to such things as scientific research, regional development and job creation (€4.75 billion to England last year from the European Social Funds went to youth job creation). 

"Myth #2: “We have to do whatever the EU tells us — they make our laws”. Of course they don’t make all our laws, and we never said they did. But the widely accepted estimate is that they make around 70% of our laws, and in most areas we have no veto. An official German government study said that Brussels makes 80% of their laws." 

• The mandate for EU laws is extremely limited. the EU has no mandate for criminal law for example. Most laws passed by the EU relate to social policy and ensuring free trade between member states. There is absolutely no way that 70 to 80% of our laws could be coming from Brussels with this kind of mandate, unless our government was doing absolutely nothing.

"Myth #3: “Your family won’t be affected if we leave”. It certainly will be — and in a good way. UKIP wants to leave the EU because it will make us all better off. Currently EU policies are destroying jobs (think steel closures) and compressing wages for working people. Time to break free."

• Yes, our families will be disrupted. 2.2 million UK citizens live in other countries in the EU. They could all be coming home. With nowhere to live, and no work. Many British migrants in Spain are retired, having them all return could be detrimental to the NHS, especially as we recently had to hire nurses from Spain, who may well need to return home due to the loss of free movement. As to driving down wages, the EU has no mandate to rule on wages. Germany only recently made laws regarding a minimum wage. The way to stop wages falling is to ENFORCE the minimum wage in the UK - and that has nothing to do with the EU. 

"Myth #4: “Being in the EU stops us from trading with the rest of the world”. No it doesn’t. But it stops us making our own trade deals, with Commonwealth countries, with China, with the USA. Did you know that small countries like Switzerland and even Iceland have made their own trade deals with China? While we’re in the EU, we can’t, and the EU hasn’t." 

• Germany trades very regularly with countries outside the EU, which would make one assume that it is our own failings that are preventing us from doing this. We also recently did a deal with China AND Boris Johnson recently sold some development land in London to a Chinese based company. Furthermore, if we did forge our own trade deals outside the EU, UKIP assumes that these will be better if we are on our own, rather than having the weight of 27 other countries behind us and at the same table. 

"Myth #5: “Leaving the EU will stop immigration”. No it won’t. We never said it would, and anyway UKIP doesn’t want to “stop immigration”. We just want to get it under control. In the EU, we can’t control the numbers, or our borders, and we are forced to discriminate in favour of unskilled Romanians and against highly qualified people from elsewhere."

• We are not obliged to take anyone into the country from the EU unless they are considered a "worker" or someone "looking for work". There are no quotas. We don't have to "favour" them in any way over workers from other countries. There are rules in the Directive on Free Movement which state quite categorically that "workers" have the right to move to another EU country to look for work. After three months if no job is found, the Member State is fully within its rights to ask the worker to move on or return. In the meantime, the member state does not have to provide anything. no housing, no benefits, nothing. If an individual is claiming unemployment in their home state., this can be transferred to them. the Directive states quite clearly that "workers" should not be a burden on the social security system of their host state. After three months, if they cannot show that they can support themselves they can be returned. If we are not monitoring this, that is the fault of the UK system and not the EU. 

"Myth #6: “The EU has done nothing for the East Midlands”. No one in UKIP has ever said this. We know that money has come from Brussels to the East Midlands, and some of it has been spent usefully. But it’s not EU money - it’s our money. Every pound we get from Brussels costs the UK economy around £3. So after we leave, we’ll have more money to spend on schools and hospitals and scientific research and the other good things we all want to do."

• Without the EU, this money would probably not have been allocated to the East Midlands, and taking the cuts that are being made by our present government, they would probably not have gone to initiatives such as technology start ups, and small and medium enterprises. Depressed parts of Wales got 2.2 billion € last year that it wouldn't have had if Westminster had been deciding where to put it. 

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Ukip Are Now Indefensible

(Guest Post by Pete North)

Interesting guy, this Pete North. Pretty much Anti-#Ukip but Pro Brexit. We have learned such people exist – indeed, on our own team, here, there are such people.

North’s articles are often deep and detailed – mainly as a result of him trying to explain the intricacies of how the EU works, a task that cannot be accommodated in a few short paragraphs. But for this reason we rarely make it to the end of his articles.

On this occasion however he has produced an article with an interesting angle on the Brexit debate, which we reproduce here, in full, unedited, with his permission.

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Ukip Are Now Indefensible

[Originally posted on the Peter J North Blog]

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Our Position On The EU Referendum - From SLATUKIP And Women Defy Ukip

We are passionately opposed to Ukip. You probably gathered that.

Our views on the EU and the forthcoming Referendum are a little more complex. There are a few of those in various Anti UKIP camps/groups who are actually in favour of an Exit, and plenty who are undecided. EU conversations are already taking place in various Anti Ukip forums - and some of them have been a little heated.

So we feel the time is right to clarify our position, on behalf of both SLATUKIP and Women Defy Ukip.

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1. The EU is a separate issue from our fight against Ukip. We fully acknowledge that Anti UKIP does not automatically mean Pro EU.

2. Within SLATUKIP, WDU and various Anti UKIP Groups there are people in both Pro and Anti EU Camps. We acknowledge this and respect it.

3. Whether anyone Anti Ukip states any opinions either way on the EU does not detract from their position on Ukip and will not be taken that way.

4. We will freely challenge either side's use of misinformation. People must decide their EU stance - and their vote - on Fact, not Rhetoric.

5. We ask that any EU discussion in Anti Ukip Forums/Groups will be polite and fact-based. Aside from our views on the EU, we are all united in our fight against Ukip and we will not allow a separate issue to detract from that.

6. The Groups, IN or LEAVE, who are vying for the official Electoral Commission selection as Nominated Group are many and varied. We will refrain from actively promoting or denigrating any particular Group, IN or LEAVE.

7. The one exception to the above point is Leave.EU. This is a purely Ukip / Farage / Arron Banks controlled Group and is the effective Ukip Brexit Front. They already have rightly accrued a reputation for falsehoods on Social Media, and their involvement in the process is detrimental to a free, and fairly informed EU Referendum.

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Winston Churchill On Europe – The Quotes, The Truth

We note the continued trend of Ukip followers on Social Media using, or misusing, various quotes from Winston Churchill to justify their position on the EU. Some of these quotations are actually true. Some of them he retracted later in life, or changed his viewpoint entirely.

It’s unethical to extract a quotation without context, so here we clarify and expand on the quotations used the most, these three;

“We are with Europe, but not of it…”

“If Britain must choose between Europe and the open sea, she must always choose the open sea…”

“We must build a kind of United States of Europe…”

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To #Ukip Eurosceptics – A Message, A Question

Always we have always fought UKIP on their Racism, Homophobia, Misogyny, Islamophobia, etc, etc.

A trickier subject to fight on is the central Ukip aim of Brexit. In fact, the Exposing UKIP team actually have some Eurosceptics within it.

Yes, it’s true. There *is* actually a Ukip policy which a few of us agree with. Shocking.

However what’s clear is the Ukip central debating point of Immigration. The economics of Brexit are neatly side-stepped as Ukip continue to make Immigration the key point of the debate.

Why ? Because they know that so many are concerned about the issue - and they can and will take full advantage of that. Whereas the economic arguments are trickier to handle for Ukip.
For the economic debate on whether we’ll be better off Out or In, that’s for another day, and is not the point of this post.

Brexit Referendum is why you joined.
No need to stay in Ukip now.

For many Eurosceptics, Brexit is why they joined Ukip. Getting that Referendum was always the goal.

You had to hold your nose to those other policies – and people – that you didn’t agree with. You had to pretend that almost weekly ejections of Ukip Officials, Members and Candidates for various forms of Hate Speech weren’t happening.

Because it was all about Brexit.

Perhaps that’s understandable. We sometimes have to choose strange bedfellows.

Well, the EU referendum will be a reality soon. So … the job is done.

So is there any need for you to support Ukip at all now?

In fact, isn’t Brexit more likely if you target your support towards a more cross-party Eurosceptic group?

Arron Banks.
Runs and owns Leave.EU.
Runs and owns Ukip.

The Electoral Commission will choose which Group will lead the No Campaign, and there are many rivals. The requirement is for this Nominated Group to have cross-party support. Arron Banks’ Leave.EU does not have that – and never will.

No-one – no-one – wants to work with Farage or Banks. Leave.EU will put Ukip – and the divisive Nigel Farage – front and centre, and alienate non-Ukip Eurosceptics with it’s Immigration rhetoric.

The type of UKIP rhetoric that
will piss off the undecideds

That Brexit you’ve been dreaming of? Chance blown. Farage will turn Brexit into a purely Ukip operation. And you will lose.

The most likely Eurosceptic group to actually win the Electoral Commission approval (as of October 2015, although Grassroots Out could now be the favourite, as of February 2016) is probably the cross-party Business For Britain – the group supported by Douglas Carswell, and the group that Farage has spent the last week taking cheap shots at.

Yes, Farage is so dedicated to Brexit that he’s spent more time this week attacking his fellow Eurosceptics who might steal his glory than actually addressing the issues. And he’s keeping the vitriol going.

Oops.

Rather amusingly Farage said that “Brexit would not be won from SW1”.

Issued in a Press statement by Leave.EU, from their London office. In, er, SW1.

So if you’re a Ukip Eurosceptic, perhaps your support should be going to ‘Britain For Business’, simply because it gives you the best chance. A splintered, bickering, Farage-dominated campaign based purely on Immigration with Leave.EU will keep Britain in the EU.

For you, it’s reached a nexus. You have to decide whether you are Eurosceptic or UKIP.

Because right now, it’s one or the other.

You have to ask yourself …

“Do I really need to support Ukip any more?”

“Or should I regain some humanity and credibility instead?”

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Why The Brexit Campaign Could Be All Over Already

Originally posted in September 2015, updated February 2016. Only the names of groups have changed, the situation for the Brexit Camps is still just as critical.

Ukip have had over twenty years to prepare for this moment - and just at the critical time, Farage's dropping the ball.

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Confused about EU Leave or Stay? Brexit or Remain? In and Out? Who’s running what campaign with who?

Welcome to the ‘God Only Knows’ Club. Grab a beer from the ‘No Idea’ Bar, take a seat on the ‘Not A Clue’ sofa and we’ll explain it all. Well, we'll try.

The bad news is, despite wall-to-wall rhetoric from all sides, the campaign hasn’t even started yet. Officially. Even the timetable hasn’t been decided. You thought we’d been debating this for months? Funny, we thought that too.

The Electoral Commission has still to 'nominate' one 'Designated Group' from each side to receive the public funding that each side gets. Ah, so there's money involved, is there? We can see the Ukip ears pricking up. Yes, actual hard cash. But only for one Designated Group per side. And there are lots of rules.

Clearly Farage's OUT side is up and dressed and having his first pint while the REMAIN Campaign (or whatever they finally choose to call themselves) haven't laced-up their trainers yet. But the interest right now lies with the OUT Campaign - which appears to be fragmenting already.

The 2014 Ukip Doncaster Conference was a rip-roarer with the defection of Douglas Carswell - but the 2015 Conference exposed the Party weakness. And the weakness is the egos involved. Oh, those egos. When putsch comes to shove, Farage has to be front and center, and this will be his undoing.

It is Nigel Farage himself
that is the single biggest
challenge for Brexit

It might just bring down the Brexit Circus around him.

Nigel Farage's main announcement last week - in fact, the core message of the Conference in toto - was that the Eurosceptic Movement had to come together as one to fight the Referendum. That worked well. Within 24 hours it had neatly been cleaved asunder.

(For Ukip readers: 'cleaved asunder' means 'cut into two parts')

There are two Eurosceptic Camps vying for the official 'nod', the honours, the credit - and of course the cash.

Firstly, "Business For Britain". A professional cross-party group, run by referendum veterans Matthew Elliot and Dominic Cummings.

(Update February 2016 - BfB has now morphed into 'Vote Leave'. Yeah,we said it was complex.)

Allied to 'Business For Britain' is Ukip's one and only MP. Yes, 100% of the Westminster representation. This is the Eurosceptic Movement for those who want to distance themselves from Ukip. 'Business For Britain' isn't even sure it wants to leave - it's strapline is "Supporting A Better Deal From Europe". Doesn't sound very Brexit to us.

(Update February 2016 - This was of course, before Cameron's negotiation process with the EU.)

Secondly "Leave.EU". Formerly trading as TheKnow.EU. Before that it was 'The Know', and before that 'Better For The Country'. Allied to Leave.EU is Farage, Ukip donor Arron Banks and it seems, the entire rest of Ukip.

(Update February 2016 - LeaveEU has now thrown it's weight behind Grassroots Out. Except for Douglas Carswell and Suzanne Evans. Still keeping up?)

Arron 'Go Skippy' Banks

And here's the problem for the Party: Farage and Banks have thrown everything behind Leave.EU. Banks is the Founder, Funder, Chairman, Advocate and The Only Person You've Ever Heard Of (and only then if you're into Politics. Or maybe Insurance).

Under his guidance, TheKnow.EU has already soiled it's reputation by posting streams of falsehoods on Social Media, leading many to conclude that when the Campaign begins for real, they will be unable to stop themselves breaking the Referendum Rules.

They are, in short, uncontrollable mavericks. Which might go down very well with the Ukip faithful, but which won't work at all for a Proper Referendum which needs to appeal to a wide cross-section of British people.

(Update February 2016 - which is why they've now allied with Grassroots Out.)

Leave.EU will have all of Ukip's (few remaining) resources, however; they are controlled not by Farage - but by Banks. I can't recall when a single wealthy individual has ever had so much power over how a party promotes it's one core belief. And so cheaply, too. Murmurs are being heard within Ukip. This is not how Democracy is supposed to be.

Carswell - SHOCKED!

For non-Ukip Eurosceptics, working with Leave.EU is problematic to say the least. It means jumping into bed with Farage, or Banks, or both. What a horrible image.

Add in two egos as large as the EU Headquarters in Brussels and it's clear - Ukip needs moderate Eurosceptics to join them, but moderate Eurosceptics just won't work with either of them.

Both? Not. A. Chance.

The division was aptly demonstrated right in the middle of Conference when Banks, livid with Carswell for what he saw as disloyalty, reportedly "threatened to deselect him if he didn't back Leave.EU".

Banks clearly appears to have a lot more power in Ukip than an unelected donor really ought to have.

He followed this up by describing Carswell, his Party's sole elected MP, as "borderline autistic with mental illness thrown in.” What a charming chap.

And this spat between the two camps doesn't look like mending any time soon. If anything, the gulf is likely to widen.

(Update February 2016 - And indeed it has. Merger attempts have failed, Ukip is still split on which group to back, Vote Leave trying to sack it's own founders.)

So, er, Nigel - how's that "Unified Eurosceptic Movement" working out for you?

Only one of two things can happen: 

Vote Leave gets selected as Nominated Group.

1. It gains some cross-party support for Brexit but probably not enough.
2. Meanwhile Leave.EU disintegrates as supporters and backers flock to Vote Leave, leaving Farage and Ukip isolated from the very cause they've promoted for twenty years.
3. Banks pulls out his money, both from Leave.EU and Ukip.
4. Farage resigns. 

Grassroots Out gets selected as Nominated Group.

1. Carswell gets sidelined.
2. Considers resigning from Ukip and remaining as an Independent MP - (the Tories won't take him back, he's asked already.)
3. Banks and Farage have the much anticipated Total Ego War (get popcorn for that one).
4. Grassroots Out, under guidance from Banks, shoots vitriol at every target in range, and Immigration becomes the core 'message' for the Campaign.
5. Moderate Eurosceptics become alienated at this and reconsider whether the EU maybe isn't so bad after all.
6. The Brexit Campaign fails, Banks pulls out his money, both from the Campaign and Ukip.
7. Farage resigns.

So how's that Unified Cause
working for you, Nigel?

Either way Brexit is rejected.

Farage resigns. 

Sigh.

Meanwhile what of the Remain Campaign? They just have to play a straight bat and wait for the inevitable implosion. They can only lose through ineptitude (but never underestimate the idiocy of any group.)

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You know, Ukip have had twenty years to prepare for this moment.

It has been their raison d'etre. It they blow their chance now, what has it all been for? Farage is backing UKIP's last chip on Leave.EU / Grassroots Out.

If it fails - and we think it will, either way - what then for Nigel?

What then, indeed, for Ukip? How many donors will contribute, how many members will remain?

And, gee, where will all the racists go now?

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